Weekly Stock Picks - STXOSV, NOL

Hot oil & gas play STXOSV has a $2 fair value suggested by OCBC research. It is currently trading downbeat though at $1.4, possibly presenting a 42% upside. Still fresh from takeover bid news that has been linking them with several key players in the market since end 2011, the stock had seen a doubling of its share price since October low last year to $1.8 in April before falling to $1.4. 

Outlook - Track closely for direction in the first trading day of the week. A cross below the 200d MA will fit in nicely with MACD and RSI suggestions of further downside. A rebound will suggest some strength in the stock reaching a local low. Chances of further downside however is definitely more likely in this supposed bear week to come.

• MACD - Is trending downwards quite heavily.
• RSI (25d) - Is also heading downwards but with some resistance at around 38% level. 
• Bollinger Bands - Prices are now falling along the lower bollinger bands with some suggestion of a rebound. However, it is noted that the prices have been walking along the lower bollinger band for the last 5 days without a rebound in sight.
• 200d MA - Prices are now supported by 200d MA. A further downside cross will spell greater possible selling pressure that will drive prices even lower.

Similar to the Yangzijiang post discussed 1 week earlier on this blog, shipping companies such as NOL, YZJ, Cosco have been in malaise ever since 2008. Baltic dry index has been oscillating around 1000 levels which is a really low level given supply glut and poor demand on economic concerns. The good news here is that shipping companies are trading at very very low prices already factored into account right now. 

Outlook - Buy on the consensus that it is in for a long investment period. Right now there is nothing to suggest that the stock may go any lower than 2011 lows unless incredible mayhem strikes Europe. Very well  defined major resistance floor for NOL prices.

• MACD - Still trending downwards but with some glimpses that there might be an increase in investors sentiments to come.
• RSI (25w) - RSI still at lower half of the territory.
• Bollinger bands - Prices are at the lower bollinger band giving rise to a greater likelihood of a rebound off the $1 resistance floor.
• $1 resistance floor - Very well defined resistance floor observed in NOL prices.